Just got a missive from Democratic Farmer Labor Party HQ telling me to keep quiet the first couple days after the new district maps are announced while they sort out the stats with their Texas Instruments calculators and formulate a uniform response for our chorus to follow. They neglected to tell me not to comment before the maps are revealed…

Change mode: Attempted Sarcasm

For background, let me refer you to David H. Montgomery’s excellent data analysis for MPR: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/02/11/what-you-need-to-know-about-minnesota-redistricting

If like me you’re already all too familiar with how redistricting (sometimes) works, scroll on down to the maps and bar graphs and such. I live over there in the lower left corner of Minnesota in what is now Congressional District (CD) 7 and will probably remain so. Ya, I know the Torkelson map puts me in a strangly twisted CD1, but it and the Murphy map are just posturing by the legislative caucuses and weren’t even submitted to the Judges who will draw the lines after the legislature fails with or without drama to do so. Every one of the four maps that matter keeps me and my DFL neighbors in CD7 for another decade of misery at the bottom of the partisan part of the ballot. Now take a look at the Biden vote percentage in the current district (35%). It get’s worse- The four maps at the bottom that are actually under serious judicial consideration drop that DFL vote by as much as almost 2%. And that last map which leaves us the same miserly 35% of the vote, which bears the name of GOP legislator Anderson, hacks up minority voting blocks so bad it’s (hopefully) DOA. So CD7 starts out the most republican district in Minnesota, and it gets worse… A popular phrase best describes our plight: “We Are So Screwed!”

Now conventional “wisdom” from the DFL party is that our response to a dearth of democrats in our district should be to campaign even harder, in the worst “Doorknock ‘Til You Drop” tradition. Then the same DFL party, it’s caucuses, and outside donors forget us and put almost all their energy and $$$ into districts that are at least around 48% democratic. I call BS!

CD7 DFLers: When (redistricting) gives you lemons, make lemonade!

It’s a tough job, but CD7 DFLers have to do it: We are Minnesota’s biggest republican vote and $$$ sink!

We are political guerrilla fighters… We can scare the republicans into spending millions in the expensive MSP media market in fear of losing the exurban women’s vote while we earn media with video of them expressing solidarity with nazis and secessionists along the Dakota frontier. Just as we wore out the nazis in WWII with cardboard tanks and plywood warships, we can panic the republican campaigns with photoshopped B-Roll bait of wrapped buses, billboard buyouts, and broadcast ready videos were just “testing” on YouTube. If the republicans are going to beat us by 30 percent, let them waste 30 million dollars to do it!

That’s just the start… Our “progressive” counterparts in the Minneapolis and St.Paul are doing their best to scare every suburban “Karen” and their racist husband clear outa the metro, and they’re ain’t much we rural democrats can do to stop them. No point in bucking that headwind, let’s run with it- If. a few hundred thousand republican voters want to escape the ‘burbs and enhance our democratic majorities there, let them sink their republican votes in the political wastelands of CD7 for the next decade!

And heck, we can profitably “monetarize” the metro republicans migration to the frozen bogs and windswept Buffalo Ridge of CD7! While leaving behind their suburban homes to immigrants and minority folks and easing the metro housing crunch, our friend the “Oracle of Omaha” and his corporation can retool their mobile home factory in Redwood Falls to mass produce the mini-mansions republicans love. For the not so wealthy (dumb) republicans, we’ll be happy to profitably sell them all the empty old houses now worth ~5x annual taxes and the swampland we inherited a decade ago. That’s just the start- Those mini-mansions seem to end up on hilltops far from water and sewer lines, so we charge them hundred dollar and hour and up metro rates to clear their two story snow drifts and install hundred thousand dollar septic systems to deal with all their crap…

Work this plan, and in a decade all but one CD in Minnesota will be solidly democratic and that unlikely CD7’s democrats will be rich. Then just in time for the 2032 redistricting, we give in to annexation and let the Dakota’s fight over them…

With tongue firmly planted in cheek, Dyna Sluyter

Update: A Mayo Clinic doctor has advised the Minnesota Legislature that 2.2 million COVID-19 survivors are disabled severely enough that they will be unable to return to work. That’s around a percent and a half of the workforce, and probably accounts for much of the current worker shortage. Here’a the link to the article at MPR: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/02/14/doctor-on-longhaul-covid

Long ago in 2019 health care was the #1 issue in almost every poll. Even after we passed Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, the 2019 stats from the Social Security Administration were an indictment- About 99% of babies born here survive to working age, but 13% of workers have died before they’re eligible to collect their first Social Security Retirement check at 62. It gets worse- Another 20% of workers have left the workforce on Social Security Disability by age 62. Then promptly at age 62 30% of workers start collecting Social Security retirement… Yup, over half our workers are dead, disabled, or retired by age 62! That’s what happens when you’re the only industrialized country that hasn’t made health care a right and entrusts “health care” to a bizarre “system” of insurance companies, big pharma, mega hospital providers, and vulturous “middle men”.

Then came COVID…

Piled upon and feeding off of this national epidemic of human suffering we have a virus that in but 2 years has killed more of us than 2 centuries of wars. A virus that while slowly burning almost freely through our population puts 5% of those afflicted in the hospital at an average cost of $50,000 each and whose “Long COVID” disability will bring down 10% to 30% of the infected. No wonder experts predicted that COVID would cost our nation 14 trillion dollars, and that prediction was made over a year ago!

So add a couple million and a couple percent more disabled workers to the 2019 stats- That “labor shortage” issue is really a health care issue. Same with inflation- The pandemic strengthened monopolies, reduced the labor supply’ and delayed materials… Making a health care issue look like an “inflation” issue. And the national debt and federal budget… Remember how a little war in Afganistan got expanded into Iraq and has cost us 4 trillion dollars and counting? COVID has killed over 100 times as many Americans and the costs calculated in trillions will grow for decades as the disabled survivors of COVID have to leave the work force and require labor intensive lifetime care. So not only is health care issue #1, numbers 2 through 5 at least are driven by health care and will only be solved by bringing American health care up to world standards.

Health care is THE issue, and while the republicans devolve into a death cult we democrats need to boldly stand up and become the party of health!

Here’s some serious message testing research from the renowned progressive Jacobin magazine that found that while “Woke Progressive” candidates are roadkill on the rural campaign trail, “Progressive Populist” candidates poll even stronger than “Mainstream Moderates”- No surprise that policies that “raise all boats” wins over a lot more voters than the currently popular “woke” identity politics. Here’s the short article: https://jacobinmag.com/2021/11/common-sense-solidarity-working-class-voting-report?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20211109&instance_id=44937&nl=the-morning&regi_id=109810810&segment_id=73890&te=1&user_id=d10aff235d7c2cd8b75796381348799a and the full report, rural content on pages 37-40: https://images.jacobinmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/08095656/CWCPReport_CommonsenseSolidarity.pdf

The researchers conclude: “These results suggest that wokeness may decrease working-class voters’ support for candidates in both rural/small-town and suburban/urban areas, but that while progressive populist messaging is the most promising anti- dote to woke messaging in rural/small-town areas, mainstream moderate messaging is likely more effective in suburban/urban areas.”

Rural campaigns, time to lose the “woke” strategy and dig out the Farmer-Labor campaign playbook that worked for Wellstone and still works today…

Last week’s ’21 off year elections were a wake up call, even more so as the geeks dig deeper into the data and tell us that the new Dem majority in the ‘burbs may not be a permanent one. And worse yet, in rural Virginia the winning republican candidate for governor ran even stronger than Trump. Thus we have a preview of the republican’s path to victory in Minnesota- Stem the blue shift in the ‘burbs while improving republican voter turnout in rural Minnesota and using the “progressive” platform to wedge more independents into voting republican. That’s a viable strategy- While the DFL has CD5 that gave not even 20% of their votes to Trump and provided Biden’s statewide margin of victory and then some, if the republicans can turn CD7 alone into as successful a voting block for them as CD5 is for the democrats and improve their turnout from around 70% in CD7 to the mid 80s the DFL draws in CD5, Governor Walz and the rest of the statewide ’22 races are a tossup.

How do we win next years elections with these trends working in the republicans favor?

The electoral battle field has clearly shifted from GOTV in heavily democratic CDs 4&5 and persuasion in the ‘burbs to preventing republican landslides in rural CD7 where a 200,000+ vote republican margin could match the DFL’s similar margins in CD5, and no doubt DFL inaction would let the republicans achieve similar landslides in the rural parts of CDs 1,6,&8.

So what’s our strategy?

The traditional DFL “door knock ’til you drop” strategy doesn’t work well in spread out rural areas, though it can be useful in high DFL index low turnout areas like Moorhead. The republican strategy has been to demonize democrats with the “progressives” latest and wackiest sound bites, which unfortunately they’re all to willing to supply. We have to correct that message, telling our story- We are hunters, parents, “gear heads”, farmers, educators, workers, etc.. Every parade and maybe tractor pulls too are opportunities to rebuild the real image of us democrats with flags, tractors, classic cars, trucks, motorcycles, veterans, and maybe a catapult too… While the republicans try to gin up their base and wedge away independents with caricatures of democrats, we present the real democrats and win over the rural swing voters that polling tells us are just like us- women, seniors concerned for their health, union members, educators, minorities and immigrants, etc..

Then we back up these positive impressions of democrats with ruthless social media campaigns. On the positive side, we provide one stop DFL campaign organizing, support group, and maybe swap shop too online communities. On the other side, we expose the lies of the republican candidates and turn their social media into political disaster areas… Have you seen “Dr. Death” Scott Jensen’s twitter account? With high speed internet becoming more common and CGI cheaper, we can produce some Wellstone quality YouTube and cable ads on a budget… Like maybe a Ken doll playing Scott Jensen in a jacked up coal rolling Trump flag waving model pickup crashing into the ditch, then gets rescued by cheerful DFLer dolls in a model minivan?

I’d hoped for an easy campaign, but we’re seriously at risk of losing everything we accomplished in 2018 and 2020 so we can’t sit this one out. I’m all in, gonna be back on the campaign trail with the motorcycle and sidecar the Lt. Governor likes, or maybe a tractor, or maybe a big farm truck… I’m partial to old Macks.

But however we roll through this campaign, we’re all in for another DFL victory!

Virginia has gotten into the habit of electing democrats the last few years, as Obama, Clinton, and Biden by a double digit margin won the state and democrats hold both senate seats and held the governorship. Yup, I said held- The republicans appear well on the way to winning the governorship, while in D+6 New Jersey an incumbent democratic governor is in the fight of his political life.

Minnesota is D+1, slightly less democratic than Virginia. Democrats have won every presidential race here for even longer than in Virginia, and we currently hold both senate seats, the governorship and every constitutional office, and the republicans last won a statewide race here in 2006. We’re not winning all those races in our sleep because Minnesota is a strong democratic state, we’ve won them because we’ve had great democratic candidates running against republicans whose names are forgotten before election day.

The republicans won Virginia by maximizing turnout of rural republican voters. In Minnesota the republicans have suffered with miserable turnout in the rural areas where they dominate while the democratic turnout operation in the metro maximizes the democratic vote. If the republicans can do in Minnesota what they did in Virginia, we won’t be a supposedly blue state much longer. Democrats, this is serious- Governor Walz and LG Flanagan protected us from Trump and his pandemic while SOS Simon assured fair elections, Auditor Blaha kept government honest, and AG Ellison provided justice. This democratic leadership team that has kept us from becoming South Dakota will be replaced if we do nothing or even “campaign as usual”, and this election will be won or lost in rural Minnesota This is an “all hands on deck” campaign that will require every resource and all the energy we can put into it. My sole focus for the next year will be to re-elect Governor Walz and our Democratic team- I’m totally in!

Are you in? Totally in?

Yes, we are, or maybe were, a big tent party. Varying groups over the decades have joined us in the comfort and camaraderie of our big tent, giving us the critical mass to advance the cause of the common people from the New Deal forward. A few groups quietly or in the case of the “Dixiecrat” racists leave noisily, good riddens to them! That “loss” was more than made up for by the newer groups that joined us in our big tent- People of color, gays, feminists, and immigrants for a start.

Here in Minnesota the group that has literally been the core of the party for over a century, even before we merged to become the “Democratic Farmer-Labor Party” that year after year puts up the lawn signs, knocks the doors, and staffs the phone banks is the hard working men and women of labor. Labor is our party’s last name, and we don’t have a party without them.

But while labor has been quietly doing the party’s work in the back of the tent, another group has jumped up on the stage and is shrilly pushing their platform- The environmental extremists. Labor has been pushing for pollution reductions for decades, partly because we were working closest to the exhaust pipes. Years before the new breed of environmental extremists barged into our big tent the UAW lobbied for retooling auto plants for electric car production, in fact the UAW local at the St.Paul Ford plant argued for keeping the plant open to build electric cars until the last Ranger was built, and then some!

To the new breed of environmental extremists labor is just unrecognized collateral damage as they attempt to stop copper mining and now mining period, no matter how stringent the environmental safeguards are. Without mining, the iron range in northeastern Minnesota becomes another U.P., a cold and distant forest dotted with dying towns trying to survive on a 3 month tourist season with the attendant low wages.

Then a truly stupid company named Embridge got the stupid idea to replace their failing oil pipeline from the tar sands of western Canada to the Superior oil hub with a new one. Fossil fuels are a shrinking sector of the economy and Embrdige’s crude source is the rot gut poor excuse for a fuel and sure as heck not a lubricant tar sands oil… Yup, they literally have to heat the sand to get the “oil” out, and it’s a garbage oil that nobody wants unless they’re desperate, which a world glutted with oil isn’t. But they got their permits and enough stupid investors to bankroll the thing, and being a union job subbed out to union contractors the union pipeliners showed up to do their jobs… Only to be “greeted” by hateful environmental extremists who deprived them of more work and pay than the usual bad weather and breakdowns.

It gets worse… In a last ditch attempt to stop a replacement pipeline that’s pretty much already built, some DFL legislators signed a document that amongst other lies, falsely alleged that our Minnesota union pipeliners were rapists operating out of “man camps” along the pipeline. Sorry dim bulb environmental extremists, I can’t find any evidence of man camps along this pipeline in Minnesota. There have been far too many sexual assaults perpetrated especially against native women near the man camps… In western North Dakota’s Bakken oil fields that house non-union “scab” workers. The union men and women workers who you falsely accuse of rape have insisted on provisions in their union contracts that guarantee that at least half of all pipeline jobs go to local workers, those provisions have largely eliminated the need for “man camps” and provided training and job opportunities for local workers.

In the back of the democratic big tent we union folks are looking up from our thankless grunt work and listening to the names we’re being called. The Laborer’s Union put out a statement yesterday decrying the environmental extremists’ lies, followed by the legendary “49ers” union local (Operating Engineers) appearing at a presser with Minnesota GOP electeds who gave the environmental extremists even stronger rebuke. And the other shoe has yet to drop… I heard rumor that Carpenter’s Union leader and long time but now exiled DFL State Senator Tom Bakk from the range is the most likely senator to be the next majority leader, and the GOP has a thin majority in the senate…

Population shifts reflected in redistricting meant the DFL had a good chance of picking up the couple seats the MSP metro and smaller outstate metros will gain and the senate majority. Driving Bakk with his campaign $$$ stash to the GOP gives the state senate and a political lifeline to the GOP for the rest of this decade. And did I mention this thing we labor people have called “solidarity”? Our power is that we unite and act as one massive bloc… When a couple hundred thousand union members leave the DFL the mailers don’t get mailed, the phone banks go silent, and doors don’t get knocked. Then on Election Day without those couple hundred thousand union votes in swing districts the DFL is no longer Minnesota’s majority party in either statewide or down ballot elections. Then maybe labor takes over the wounded wreck of the Minnesota GOP party and gives it a couple more decades of life… As the majority party.

Last post back I depressingly detailed how the GOP had succeeded in one thing- They’d kept the COVID virus alive and killing. Today I’m gonna detail how we dems can win, COVID be damned! While mostly aimed at a rural audience, these strategies will work for democrats almost everywhere.

We came into this pandemic on the tailwind of 2018 and earlier election victories, with the GOP unable to win a statewide race in Minnesota in over a decade. We did that despite “progressives” gaming our endorsements for governor and AG followed by a “cattle call” filing scene at the SOS counter. We continued our victory streak in 2020, despite Trump wasting too much time here and having to forgo in person conventions and door knocking, which only the campaign staffers who had to make contact quotas missed. But down ballot was a disappointment if not a disaster- In 2018 we swapped congressional seats with no gain and picked up a few suburban state house districts to take back control, in 2020 we lost a congressional seat and made no progress in the legislature.

Conventional (AKA Pre-COVID) wisdom is that 2022 will be a repeat of the 2018 election at the top of the ballot, with the incumbent Constitutional Officers (Gov, LG, SOS, AG, and Auditor) cruising to an easy victory. But 8 months after vaccines became available barely half the country is vaccinated, 150,000 new cases are popping every day, and winter is coming= COVID will be THE issue of the 2022 election! Let us not avoid but embrace this issue- We are the party of science that has taken the high road for public health and safety while the GOP is devolving into a death cult. We must be the voice of hope, fulfilling our role as public health advocates while the GOP peddles bleach, dewormer, and lies. And despite the shrill anti mask and and vaccine protestations of the GOP, playing it safe polls well… So let’s make the GOP wish they’d never tried to make COVID denial an issue!

And did I mention that we’re getting redistricted? Add COVID induced virtual meetings to GOP gerrymandering attempts and our congressional and down ballot candidates will be lucky to know for sure what district they’re running in until the eve of filing. By then the usual “progressives”, Bernie Bros, and single issue “activists” will be in full attack mode, doin’ the GOP’s work for them by attacking our hard working incumbent democratic electeds.

So how do we win on this broken electoral battlefield?

For a start, learn from the lessons of 2020 when all the democratic presidential candidates but Bernie figured out that a dragged out caucus and primary campaign during the growing pandemic was beyond stupid- They figured out that Joe Biden was the strongest candidate and united behind him. From that early wave of the pandemic we learned how to conduct virtual party conventions and streamline the endorsement process. We need to continue that progress by giving our incumbent elected democrats early endorsements so they can get on with defeating the GOP without the distractions of endorsement challenges from the sore losers of last year’s pipeline protests or whatever. So let’s make re-endorsement automatic, except if the 40% of DFL delegates who could block an endorsement petition for reconsideration. While we’re at it, let’s confine the “walking subcaucus” to the Minneapolis DFL for whom it has become a sacred ritual, our party has been busting right through every diversity goal so this anachronism just adds COVID spread opportunities. So as the 2022 election year dawns our Governor and Constitutional Officers can get on with beating the GOP, who won’t have candidates endorsed for months. Downballot where the district lines are subject to redistricting tweaks, we need to give our incumbents and returning candidates provisional endorsements which will become full endorsements after the district lines are finalized. This will give our candidates the boost they need to build recognition and fundraising- I live in rural Minnesota’s Lyon County which is right next to Yellow Medicine and Lac Que Parle counties which all voted for Klobuchar in ’18 and Trump in ’20 and have enough population to be a state house district. But to win like Amy they’ll need early and frequent support and fundraising into six figures, and that requires the “head start” our candidates deserve.

Having finalized our side of the ballot while the GOP is in disarray, we apply everything we learned during the COVID campaign of 2020 and add some new tricks. Doorknocking was a waste of time beyond low turnout off year city primaries and in the age of COVID uninvited doorknockers are a liability- Instead we need to swarm the competitive Klobuchar/Trump districts with signs and block long parade units. CD7, I’m lookin’ at you- Your 4 by 8 trailers and party platform issues signage are cute, but about as effective as the churches who cover their floats with bible verses with a bonus “you’re going to hell” message. Get a tractor, get a pickup, heck, get a big truck and a dirt track race car too- Voting choices are driven by subtle “tribal” messaging, not policy positions. And get a bigger trailer so you can give us old folks a ride AND have room for 2×4 and 4×8 signs! I’ve got a like new 6 by 12 sit-in’ here doin’ nuthin’…

And repeat. Become the party of the center, left, and everywhere in between- an American virtual “governing coalition” party that denies the GOP the center and forces them to cohabit with the vaxxers, militias, and criminals. Do it all and come election ’22 we’ll win supermajorities, and in a late night online filing the GOP will declare bankruptcy and go extinct…

Trigger Warning- This story is real and depressing, fact is that COVID isn’t going away and will affect all our lives and futures.

Friend of mine had no symptoms but tested positive for COVID-19 last fall. He worked two jobs and at age 64 was in great shape other than being a smoker. No family history of heart or circulatory disease and he isn’t diabetic and seemed like he’d shrugged off COVID. But couple months later he can’t work, had a heart attack, and after trying every treatment to improve his circulation, last week they had to amputate his foot. His wife has a mobility impairment, after COVID she has to speak hesitatingly to catch her breath. They raised two autistic kids through high school and into adulthood, both graduated with their class and the older one works and drives.

Life expectancy after amputation due to poor circulation is a bit over 5 years, my friend may make it to 70 and about all he’ll enjoy of retirement is Social Security and Medicare. Similar prognosis for his wife, she might make it to 60. Their kids will have to grow up even faster, rapidly becoming independent adults as well as caretakers. Across America and around the world their loss is multiplied- 37 million Americans have officially been infected by COVID, and several studies suggest that around 30% of them are still suffering from COVID symptoms, and 10% will be permanently disabled. Just that 10% of COVID survivors is 2% of America’s workforce, which explains the current labor shortage a lot better than increased unemployment benefits. In a nation that disables workers wholesale to the point that 20% of 61 year olds had been forced to retire on Social Security Disability Insurance benefits before COVID changed everything, the loss of just a couple percent of workers to disability will hobble our economy for decades.

Last fall a couple renowned Harvard economists predicted that COVID will cost America $14T if we can stop it in a year, and that’s “T” as in “Trillion” and eclipses any COVID emergency spending ever proposed. Almost a year later we’re in the second biggest COVID outbreak yet and it’s still growing. We’ve vaccinated half of Americans, but COVID has mutated to be twice as infectious. World vaccine production capacity was around 2 billion shots a year before COVID, and even after doubling that our world is maybe 25% vaccinated, and now we need boosters…

I’ve been grieving over this reality of continuing COVID for a few days now, so I’m going to stop now and give my readers some time to process it too. I’ll be back in a few days to discuss how we democrats can survive and thrive despite COVID, and win elections too!

Yesterday the Census Bureau gave us a major data dump, and besides the expected deluge in obscure formats only bureaucracies still use, they gave us some nice readable toplines too, you can find them here: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html

The Cliff’s Notes summary is that the urban areas that lean democratic gained population and the rural areas where the republicans are making their last stand lost population. Most elected bodies from the U.S. House, legislatures, county boards, and on down to city councils apportion seats in those bodies based on population, so this is a potential huge gain for us democrats in the 2022 and later elections. Of course, the GOP’s gerrymanderers will be creating even more diabolically twisted gerrymandered districts to try to stay in power while the majority of the voters want them gone.

Focusing on Minnesota, our population grew by 7.6% or 403k (thousand) since the 2010 census. 243k of that gain was in the democratic strongholds of Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, and Washington counties in the twin cities metro, while dem leaning smaller outstate metro counties Olmsted, Blue Earth, and Clay added another 30k so almost 70% of the population growth was in blue counties. In contrast GOP strongholds Sherburne, Crow Wing, and Otter Tail counties gained only 16k together, though the smaller counties where the GOP is hiding out probably provided much of the rest of the state’s population increase. So we know the blue counties got at least 140k more people or nearly 3% of Minnesota’s population, but how will that effect redistricting and the 2022 and beyond sections?

We barely hung on to our 8 congressional seats so they’ll be no congressional “musical chairs” and major redrawing of the district lines is unlikely as parties tend to protect their own. MPR was nice enough to decode the numbers for us at this link: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/08/12/census-major-changes-for-state-demographics-politics. CD1 needs 23k more population, neighboring CD7 needs more to so can’t spare any but CD2 has almost that many too many, but the transferred turf is pretty “swingy” so CD1 will probably still lean red, while CD2 could pick up some excess democrats from the Dem metro vote sinks otherwise known as CDs 4 and 5. Deep red CD6 in the metro’s western and northern exurbs has surplus population too which will likely go to deep red CD7 and newly red CD8, so rural CDs 1,7,and 8 will probably remain GOP “homelands”. But as the districts “scrunch in” towards CDs 4 and 5 about 80k mostly Dem voters could be transferred towards CD6 while 100k mostly GOP voters could be shifted into already red CDs 1, 7, and 8. Being in the middle of the state and thus bordering most other CDs 6 is vulnerable to such shifts, it went the other direction from blue to red after the 2002 redistricting, and we’d love to turn CD6 blue again!

So with the GOP unlikely to gerrymander a congressional seat their way (they’ll try anyways…), CD6 could be put in play to return the DFL to a 5-3 majority in Congress. But how about down ballot? The legislators will take the first shot at redistricting and aren’t about to map themselves out of jobs, so expect the rural districts to get bigger and the metro districts will get scrunched more, but won’t matter ’cause they’re all democratic. All that scrunching will add at least a house district or two and probably a senate district to the heavily DFL metro counties and a house seat in Olmsted and possibly house seats in Blue Earth and Beltrami counties… That senate seat will give the DFL back the senate majority! There are also “wild card” red to blue flips possible in the counties Amy carried in 2018 around Bemidji, Marshall, and Willmar provided the district lines are drawn favorably.

‘Cross the state lines and despite the Dakota’s best efforts they barely rate one congress member each, but in Iowa we see a similar pattern to Minnesota as the “Peoples Republic of Johnson County” and Dem leaning Polk County had double digit population gains. Depending how the maps are drawn even northwest Iowa’s CD4 could no longer be safe GOP, but more likely IA2 will stay safe democratic while IA2 and IA3 will get bluer. Iowa has some of the best political bloggers, and “Bleeding Iowa” blog games out the possibilities for us here: https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2021/08/12/redistricting-scenarios-part-6-possible-districts-revisited/ Wisconsin has been the Midwest’s GOP gerrymandering poster boy and with little population increase and almost none in Milwaukee County, it’s no surprise that southwest Wisconsin’s long serving democratic congressman Kind announced his retirement just before the data dump. But wait, there’s Nebraska! Thanks to Nebraska’s breaking out electoral votes by congressional district, “NE2” has become a part of the political lexicon for over a decade. Nebraska’s 2nd district is Omaha and some suburbs and the GOP which runs the state has managed to keep it a swing district by gerrymandering a blue swath of south Omaha metro into a red district. Sorry GOP, that ain’t gonna work anymore- While Nebraska’s population grew by 7%, blue Douglas and Sarpy counties in the Omaha metro and one county away Lancaster County where Nebraska tests tractors at Lincoln grew by double digit percentages. At this point the Nebraska GOP gerrymanderer’s only choice is whether they want to surrender NE2 or take a gamble and make two swing districts.

So redistricting is good news, despite the GOP’s best attempts otherwise. I’ll report back when we get finer level data and see if things like minority opportunity districts around the immigrant concentrations in southwest Minnesota and the Native Nations in northern Minnesota are possible…

Best wishes to DFL state senator Melisa Franzen and state auditor Julie Blaha for a speedy recovery from the injuries they received in a car crash leaving Farmfest.

At the dawn of the 20th century half of Minnesotans lived on farms and kept a vast “Machinery Hill” at the state fair busy as dozens of implement and seed suppliers vied for their business. By the 1970s White had consolidated 4 tractor makers into 0 and there were a dozen odd seed sellers instead of hundreds, and an even more drastic reduction in the number of farmers who’d survive Butz’s “get big or get out” farm policy. What was left of Machinery Hill’s corporate “citizens” migrated to the cheaper rent of the prairie 100+ miles west in Redwood County and they called it Farmfest.

Big Ag had a good run with Farmfest there for 4 decades, but ultimately there preferred consolidation into as close to monopolies as the antitrust laws allowed doomed Farmfest- When a dozen odd seed or tractor suppliers consolidate down to four or so they need only rent four Farmfest lots instead of a dozen. Same with the farms, as the 160 acre homesteaded farm consolidated to section sized and now township sized corporate farms with such huge buying power that they didn’t even shop the local suppliers. Throw in several years of low commodity prices and now a drought and even the surviving farmers have little reason to come and shop for equipment they couldn’t afford anyway. Farmfest was faltering before COVID, didn’t happen last year, and even the usually SRO crowds at the forums were reduced to more empty seats than occupied and maybe 20 odd policy wonks watching online.

Farmfest was a child of big ag, and ultimately through consolidation big ag has eaten it’s own.

Since the rule of President Bush the Bad southwest MN dems have gathered at Ted Suss and Janet Marti’s farm after Farmfest for an evening of sweet corn, salads. delicious deserts, speeches, and more deserts. IIRC this year’s 200+ democrats easily beats the all time attendance record.

And in this double digit R+ congressional district we already had in attendance not one, not two, but three declared candidates 15 months before the election. Plus a DFL Attorney General who brings corporate criminals and murdering cops to justice…

And top o’ the ballot, Governor Tim Walz!

And finally thanks to Ted Suss who’s organized this great get-together all these years!