CD7 Outreach Officers update, 9/4/18: Using election data to target precincts

A MN house district has about 20,000 doors, and about now our campaigns are probably wondering which ones to door knock or mail to, especially given that the VAN database isn’t real useful out here. ’18 is a year for turnout strategies, so we need to find our “drop out” DFL voters. Let’s start with the precinct results for the DFL “high water mark” with the current districts, the ’12 general from the SOS: https://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/1364/chapter_10-minnesota_votes.pdf Find results for the districts you want, I usually print out the pages I need. We’re looking for precincts with a majority of DFL voters, so we’re going to use Colin Peterson’s and Tim Walz’s results because they’ve run in each election so we have comparable stats and they’re usually our best performing candidates. For our first cut, I’m going to pick out the SD16 precincts Colin and Tim won with at least Colin’s share of the CD7 vote, 60%. For brevity we’re only looking at precincts where Colin or Tim got over 100 votes, resulting in a list of 18 strong DFL precincts.

Next we want to find which of these precincts had a lot of DFL voters stay home in ’14 and ’16, so download the same precinct level data for ’14: https://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/1353/chapter-10_mn-votes-2015.pdf . Colin’s CD7 vote total dropped 34% between ’12 and ’14 and Tim’s in CD1 36%, so for the next cut lets look at our 18 highly DFL precincts for those with more than a 35% drop off for Colin or Tim, yielding a list of 9 precincts. But what about ’16, and shouldn’t we be comparing presidential election years? Good point, the SOS doesn’t have the “Blue Book” out for that year yet, so we’ll have to go to the bottom of the web page here for precinct level data: https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20161108 . Colin and Tim’s vote totals were each down 12% from ’12 to ’16, so we’ll take another cut at our 18 strong DFL precincts and filtering out those with more than that 12% drop from ’12 to ’16. That filter gives us 14 DFL precincts with below average turnout in ’16, Two precincts that made the ’14 list improved turnout enough to miss the 2016 list, but we’ll include them in the final list anyway.

So our first cut reduced our list of 20,000 doors to knock down to about 3,000 doors in the most DFL leaning 18 precincts. The second and third cuts dropped only 2 precincts, so that filter probably isn’t worth using here. But about 80% of those doors are in the more DFL leaning 16A side, which points out that you can adjust your “cut” points to whatever suits your needs, so in 16A you might sort out a higher priority tier of precincts that went 70% or more for Colin in ’12, and 16B you might make the first cut at 50% vote for our DFL congress member in ’12 rather than the 60% we used. You can also use these methods to target precincts rich in swing voters, in higher turnout elections like 2020 we’ll be targeting them more. Even if the VAN is lacking much voter survey data for your district it will have basic public data like voting history which you can use in conjunction with these election results derived data to fine tune your campaign priorities. And if you’ve got better number crunching software than I have, much of the SOS data is available in .xls and other formats. Enjoy! In a future report I’’ll explain how to use census data to find even more DFL voters.

Respectfully submitted, Dyna Sluyter

As of 5:38 pm EST 538’s “deluxe” congressional race predictions show 19 districts as “tossups”. Darn near half those districts, 8 in all, are not in the ‘burbs as expected- they’re at least 20% rural, and 3 of those districts are over 50% rural. Two of those districts, MN1 and MN7, are typical- A vast farming region with a “micropolitan statistical area” of at least 100,000 and several regional centers of over 10,000 population. 270 to win’s senate pundits rankings tell a similar story with 5 of the 8 races rated “toss up” in states that are over 20% rural. Looking at the pundits picks of the “toss up” governors races we find 7 of 12 are in states that are over 20% rural.

Living in southwest Minnesota within a days drive of 7 of these “tossup” congressional races, 3 of the senate races, and 4 of the gov races make these exciting times, and I hope to report on them all. But as a democrat, I’m worried- Our party has barely begun relearning how to win in rural areas. Here in Minnesota we may flip the GOP held suburban 2 and 3rd districts only to lose the DFL held more rural 1st and 8th districts. It could get worse… 538’s “lite” polls only forecast  shows rural CD7, hybrid CDs 1 and 8, and suburban CDs 2 and 3 as tossups. With that outcome in the middle of a “blue wave” the MN DFL party could lose 3 districts to the GOP while gaining only one or two suburban GOP districts.

That’s why democrats can only become the governing party by winning in rural areas!

CD7 Outreach Officers Report for September 2018:

There are reasons why we’re working so hard to elect DFLers… Reasons like the refugee children and parents that Trump’s ICE separated at the border and imprisoned in makeshift concentration camps. Reasons like the thousands of born in America hispanic citizens that Trump and the GOP are imprisoning and deporting, alleging that their Texas Birth Certificates are fake. Reasons like the transgender citizens whose passports have been revoked, one of whom is now stranded abroad and will probably have to seek asylum. And even more reasons like Trump’s threat to annex Tribal Nations and invalidate human rights laws.

And hard work it will be- Take a look at the pundit’s prognostications at https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election-predictions/ . The GOP is almost guaranteed 49 seats and with Pence as the GOP tie breaker we need to “run the table” to win the senate, a long shot. 538 has the best congressional forecasts out, here’s their polls only “lite” forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite . As of now that forecast gives us a 58% chance of retaking congress, now take a look at the races in each MN district- Yikes, the forecast shows us barely leading in a toss up race in CD3 but trailing the GOP in CDs 1,2,7, and 8! Now try the classic forecast which adds more non polling data- CDs 2 and 3 are leaning DFL, but we’re trailing in a toss up in CD1 and CD8 leans GOP, but at least CD7 is forecast as likely DFL. More data is always better, so click on the “Deluxe” button- The GOP is barely leading in toss up CDs 1 and 8, while DFLers lead in toss up CD3 and CD2 leans DFL. 538 has flagged 18 congressional races as “toss ups”, and 3 are in Minnesota- More than any other state, far as I can tell. Add our two senate races and Minnesota will play a bigger role than any other state in taking back the federal legislative branch… But we can’t accomplish that if we pick up two suburban CDs while losing two or even three rural CDs! Same with the legislative races- Winning the 11 GOP held state house races in suburban districts Hillary carried will only tie us with the GOP for control of the state house, and the GOP has designs on the 7 DFL held districts Trump won… Clearly we need to win rural races as well as suburban ones!

How do we win? Each of these 4 or 5 competitive CDs is predicted to be won or lost by a margin of 3% or less, we need a bit over 100,000 votes to win a CD in a non presidential election, so we only need to find a few thousand more DFL voters and get them to the polls. CD7 has 17,000 newly eligible young voters who need affordable higher education, 15,000 native american voters whose tribal sovereignty is threatened, 12,000 immigrant voters targeted by Trump and the GOP’s “ethnic cleansing”, and 44,000 veterans who have earned benefits Trump and the GOP are trying to steal. That’s our margin of victory that will help win countless legislative races too, now let’s get out and get them to the polls!

Respectfully submitted, Dyna Sluyter

The primary is over, my candidate won, and I’m as (sometimes) welcome again as ever at most DFL venues, ‘cept for one holdout FB page. Meanwhile, looks like the state DFL party blew their wad on their losing candidates… Word has it that they won’t be staffing our local campaign office, and their share of the rent is overdue. Meanwhile, competitive state house districts in the ‘burbs are being carpet bombed with DFL funded mailers…

So apparently the DFL ain’t broke, they’ve just forgotten rural Minnesota like usual. The pattern has become predicable- We hear a lot of talk about how they’re going to compete everywhere, our rural candidates work their tushes off, we parade and doorknock and phone for them, and blow our local DFL budget on a campaign office. Then the DFL dumps it’s dollars pretty much within the metro and DFLers pretty much lose again outstate.

Having observed this DFL failure for the half dozenth time in rural MN I’ve learned to take a cue from the state party leadership… If they’ve abandoned our rural campaigns, I’m not about to doorknock ’til I drop. So last weekend with no campaign events on the calendar I headed to Galena, Illinois to commune with some of my motorcycling buddies from Wisconsin, Illinois, and even Florida. Had a great weekend, and was delighted to see a dem campaign office open in Monroe, Wisconsin. Half of Iowa’s CDs, the WI gov seat, and MN1 I traveled though are all in play and the dems are active in all, though the MN1 candidate could use more signage.

Meanwhile on the other side of Illinois the DNC was meeting… WTH, can’t they get their business done in years we’re not busy with elections? Their major much ballyhooed accomplishment was trimming the power of the superdelegates. That means the Bernie Bros will have one less conspiracy (theory) to whine about and the party hacks will have to rely on traditional hacks like caucus manipulation to get their losing candidates nominated. I’ll put out a “how to hack a caucus” tutorial before the Iowa caucuses for the newbies…

Minnesotans, prepare to be polled into oblivion, what with 2 senate races, a gov race, and half your congressional seats in play. Iowans, you won’t get a break either, and even the Dakotas are in play, or at least Trump is worried they are. So expect darn near daily polls.

This poll is from Suffolk University, rated a B+ pollster by 538. They show Tina Smith 7% ahead of GOPer Housley, winning the metro but losing outstate. Klobuchar is +19% and leads everywhere. Walz is +5% statewide over Johnson with big leads in the metro, ties Johnson in the south, and trails by only -3% in the north.

The GOP senate candidates are having problems getting name recognition, while Johnson’s reputation precedes him and he’s over 90%. The top issue is health care most everywhere followed by the economy, with immigration down around 5th on the list. And as in previous recent polls, the gender gap is running around 20%!

Here’s the full 200+ crosstabs for the geeks and here’s the mere 7 page “toplines” summary for the rest of us. Enjoy…

 

Having received neither formal notice of my purging nor “political rehabilitation”, I went ahead and cranked out my (i)regular report:

CD7 Outreach Officers report for mid august 2018:

Not sure if I’m allowed to return from exile and again perform my duties as Outreach Officer, but nobody’s told me I can’t and it needs to get done. The primary is over, the state DFL party made the mistake of demanding support of some great endorsed candidates who didn’t have a chance, and the rifts thus created will not soon disappear. Speaking for myself being exiled by the party has reduced my trust in the state DFL leadership and discouraged me from ever again seeking party office- Why become a party officer only to be bullied and exiled merely because you preferred a different DFL candidate that the party insiders had endorsed?

Back to business… With both party’s having contested primary races the primary was a good read on the mood of the voters. Statewide about twice as many citizens voted for DFL candidates than voted for GOPers. The governor’s race was the most competitive in both parties and thus probably the best metric, and in CD7 the GOP governor candidates got only 3% more votes than our DFL candidates did- Not bad considering this is supposedly an R+12 district and there was a contested primary for the congressional endorsement on the GOP side to drive their turnout. They don’t break down the results by legislative district unless their was a contested primary there, so we don’t have much returns by district but they do break the results down by county and they look good for us- We beat the republican vote in Beltrami County by 20%, by an even bigger margin in Clay County, just about tied in Kandiyohi County, and narrowly lost Douglas and Lyon county by single digit margins. We also got more total votes than the GOP in the governors race in Kittson, Polk, Red Lake, Norman, Mahnomen, Traverse, Grant, Big Stone, Stevens, Pope, Swift, Lac Que Parle, Chippewa, and Yellow Medicine counties! This is great news for several of our down ballot state house candidates, pointing to several districts that we have the potential to win. Going back to the statewide races it takes about a million votes to win statewide, and with our high primary turnout we are already over halfway there.

In other matters our State Central Committee refused to join in the GOP’s virtual lynching of Keith Ellison and formally endorsed him for Attorney General. The work of the CHAT committee to deal with intra party harassment, etc. was expedited and they were empowered to begin inquisitions, purges, or whatever formal term they’re more likely to call them. Having witnessed the Outreach and Inclusion Committee attempt this function in the past I’m worried- The one case we heard seemed more an attempt to remove an officer to shift control of a local party unit to an outside group than to remedy the admitted act of insensitivity. I thus fear the CHAT process if not carefully controlled will be used to remove and silence we more mainstream DFLers from greater Minnesota.

And finally, just in case the DFL leadership does silence my voice in party forums, I’ve started a new blog at http://www.sassy.democrat . I’ll be crossposting these reports there as well as other news and my two bit opinions there with a focus on rural small “d” democratic politics.

Respectfully submitted, Dyna Sluyter

 

It’s been not quite a century since Minnesota’s last lynching, detailed here by Wikipedia. Though the lynch mob has lost the nooses, other details are similar- Black men accused of assault with no evidence provided. Just as in the 1920 lynchings the only witnesses are the accusers and accused, with no disinterested third party testimony. None the less in 1920 the dead tree media of the day fed the fires of hate, and today social media carries on that sick tradition.

The three black men lynched in 1920 never had a chance to defend themselves in court, and with no evidence nor impartial testimony to prove their guilt they would have likely been acquitted. Congress member Ellison’s accuser should have reported the alleged assault to the police, but she didn’t. She could have filed a civil suit for damages, and with the deep pockets of Ellison’s campaign treasury, Congress, and maybe the Sierra Club too with even the slightest thread of evidence she would have had no problem procuring legal representation. But instead she and her son make their charges via the cyber gossip fest of social media, and what passes today for media has amplified that gossip for all the ratings it’s worth.

It’s no surprise that the republicans and their right wing media are leading a lynch mob to all but hang Ellison- They’re the same party that has for decades used black men and now immigrants to terrify voters into supporting them. The question is, will the DFL party lower itself to joining that lynch mob by not giving Ellison a routine endorsement at it’s Central Committee meeting saturday?

 

The Winners:

Amy Klobuchar, senator for life or until she becomes president.

Tina Smith handily dispatched her newbie dem challenger.

Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan- Outperformed the polls by double digits on their way to a damn near double digit win.

Keith Ellison, getting darn near half the vote in a 5 way race everywhere, despite unsubstantiated domestic abuse charges against him.

Small “d” democrats- Taking back their party from the special interests that hacked the endorsement process.

Ms. Congeniality: The Erins, who despite name recognition that didn’t even span two counties won Minneapolis and St.Paul together on a shoe string budget. While some of your supporters became strident and downright overbearing, you were gracious in outperforming the original polls by over 20 points while relegating 3 time statewide winner Lori Swanson to 3rd place.

The losers:

The aforementioned Lori Swanson who probably ended her political career and maybe her legal career too by pressuring staffers in her Attorney Generals office to campaign for her.

The Minnesota DFL party leadership for probably blowing at least a six figure sum on  hopeless “endorsed” statewide candidates while exiling any party leader who didn’t fall into line and support their “endorsed” candidates. With the primary over, are we allowed back in the party again?

 

Take a look at your ballot… Klobuchar and Smith are easy choices for senate. Governor is where the choices get tough… Scandal plagued Swanson would be a dem disaster and is an automatic no. We love Murphy, but the polls make it clear she can’t win and can only play spoiler, silently thank her and move on. Our one chance to get it right is Walz, the progressive who wins back Trump voters… Fill in the circle next to Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan!

Next comes AG, and I ain’t even gonna go there. If you’ve got a choice of congressional candidates, go for the progressive that supports both jobs and the environment and can win. And if you’re in far southwestern MN, vote for Maxwell Kaufman for state house, his opponent got all of two votes at the district convention and has endorsed Bernie, Trump, and that forgettable green candidate the last cycle.

But most important of all, put Walz on the november ballot… It’s our one shot to get this right.

And it’s time to come up for air, lest I spend all day down there! Here’s a link to the data, just click on results. The data set is huge and must run to over a thousand cells and they’ve even calculated probabilities, but the sample sizes get so small that the data ain’t real reliable- When you start with a sample of 400, filter that down to 200 or so democrats, and then split that down to 20 to 30 democrats per congressional district the MOEs get huge. But here’s a few unmistakable trends I observed:

-Gender spreads are huge, on the order of 20%, both between parties and dem candidates. Surprisingly Swanson is taking advantage of this as well as Murphy.

-Walz does best at winning over reps and indies, with around 20% of his vote coming from Trump supporters!

-Walz and Murphy tied with under 30s, Swanson leads among 30-65 voters, Walz leads with 65+ voters.

Generic congressional ballot- Dems lead in CDs 2,3,4,&5. Close in 1&7 and tied in 8. Dems have bigger lead in CD3 than in CD4!

I could binge read through these vast internals until the polls close, but I’d best get a few other things accomplished before the sun sets…