Ya gotta “Plan B”, don’t ya?
Such is the state of Team Blue’s multi year comeback- I just glanced at the deluxe version of 538’s house forecast and it currently shows us leading in exactly 50% +1 of the house races. We are leading the tightest of those races for the 218th seat that will give us a majority by just half a percent in 538’s forecast. Thus 538 is giving us 5 out of 7 odds of retaking the house, about the same as they gave Hillary on election eve… And we know how that went.
The uphill slog into deep red territory that is this midterm’s senate races is at least more certain but in the wrong direction, with 538 forecasting 2 in 9 odds of our taking the senate. 538 estimates that to become our 51st senator Heidi Heitkamp needs to find enough votes to make up the 2.8% she trails her GOP opponent by… That 2.8% is about the difference between the poor native voter turnout that Hillary produced in ’16 and a truly motivated native voter turnout in the Dakotahs that produces democratic wins.
Here in MN7 it’s getting boring, thankfully the GOP shows no interest in mounting much of an attack on democrat Collin Peterson in this R+13 district. GOP held suburban MN2&3 and now rated “likely democrat”, while Democratic Farmer-Labor (DFL) party held MN1&8 have slipped to “leans republican” and “tossup” rankings, with republicans leading in both. The senate and gov races look safe DFL while the state DFL party looks set to blow another chance to become the state house majority by simply failing to back enough candidates in red enough districts. While D-Trip has gotten with the program and is supporting democratic candidates in even R+ double digit districts, the Minnesota DFL leadership seems quite happy to frustrate next governor Walz with a GOP legislature and swap two rural seats for two suburban seats and contribute nothing to Team Blue’s comeback. Fortunately Tim Walz knows better and he’s campaigning hard in those two rural CDs and supporting our rural state house candidates too. And in neighboring states where the state parties aren’t afraid to challenge entrenched republicans in even deep red districts a few congressional seats and governor’s mansions are going blue.
So have that “Plan B” ready, best not be surprised on election night should voter disenfranchisement, GOP attacks, and lax leadership like the MN DFL’s give Trump and his GOP another cycle of absolute power to abuse. But until the polls close and the last recount is over let’s campaign like our lives depend on it… Because they vary well might!
Sassy Democrat 