The GOP could have delayed the Kavanaugh confirmation ’til the lame duck session and the democrats could have just let it pass… Both sides must have thought it to their advantage to make a scorched earth fight of it. Couple days back when Kavanaugh was being grilled a poll showed republican voter intent rallied by that grilling. Then Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota said she’d vote no, and her donation website promptly crashed under the overload. This afternoon Senator Susan Collins announced her yes vote, and a website raising money for her 2020 opponent crashed too… Those surges are significant!
Thanks to gerrymandering a shift of less than 1% would keep the house in republican hands. Kavanaugh, the angry white guys latest martyr, is easy for them to ID with. And while the angry white guy demographic is the republican’s biggest, they’re already pretty motivated so their ain’t a whole lot more of them left to motivate to the polls. Meanwhile survivor Christine Blasey Ford wedges white women- A demographic that favored Trump- To the democrats and galvanizes voting intent in democratic leaning minority women. But the 51st senate seat the democrats need to win is probably Heidi Heitkamp’s in North Dakota, and she’s trailing in the polls and 538 has her down almost 3%.
Then again, a 4% Texas bump would send Beto to the senate, and Mississippi’s “jungle primary” leading to a likely November 27th general election could send another democrat to the senate…
Sassy Democrat 