As of 5:38 pm EST 538’s “deluxe” congressional race predictions show 19 districts as “tossups”. Darn near half those districts, 8 in all, are not in the ‘burbs as expected- they’re at least 20% rural, and 3 of those districts are over 50% rural. Two of those districts, MN1 and MN7, are typical- A vast farming region with a “micropolitan statistical area” of at least 100,000 and several regional centers of over 10,000 population. 270 to win’s senate pundits rankings tell a similar story with 5 of the 8 races rated “toss up” in states that are over 20% rural. Looking at the pundits picks of the “toss up” governors races we find 7 of 12 are in states that are over 20% rural.
Living in southwest Minnesota within a days drive of 7 of these “tossup” congressional races, 3 of the senate races, and 4 of the gov races make these exciting times, and I hope to report on them all. But as a democrat, I’m worried- Our party has barely begun relearning how to win in rural areas. Here in Minnesota we may flip the GOP held suburban 2 and 3rd districts only to lose the DFL held more rural 1st and 8th districts. It could get worse… 538’s “lite” polls only forecast shows rural CD7, hybrid CDs 1 and 8, and suburban CDs 2 and 3 as tossups. With that outcome in the middle of a “blue wave” the MN DFL party could lose 3 districts to the GOP while gaining only one or two suburban GOP districts.
That’s why democrats can only become the governing party by winning in rural areas!
Sassy Democrat 