CD7 Outreach Officers Report for September 2018:
There are reasons why we’re working so hard to elect DFLers… Reasons like the refugee children and parents that Trump’s ICE separated at the border and imprisoned in makeshift concentration camps. Reasons like the thousands of born in America hispanic citizens that Trump and the GOP are imprisoning and deporting, alleging that their Texas Birth Certificates are fake. Reasons like the transgender citizens whose passports have been revoked, one of whom is now stranded abroad and will probably have to seek asylum. And even more reasons like Trump’s threat to annex Tribal Nations and invalidate human rights laws.
And hard work it will be- Take a look at the pundit’s prognostications at https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election-predictions/ . The GOP is almost guaranteed 49 seats and with Pence as the GOP tie breaker we need to “run the table” to win the senate, a long shot. 538 has the best congressional forecasts out, here’s their polls only “lite” forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite . As of now that forecast gives us a 58% chance of retaking congress, now take a look at the races in each MN district- Yikes, the forecast shows us barely leading in a toss up race in CD3 but trailing the GOP in CDs 1,2,7, and 8! Now try the classic forecast which adds more non polling data- CDs 2 and 3 are leaning DFL, but we’re trailing in a toss up in CD1 and CD8 leans GOP, but at least CD7 is forecast as likely DFL. More data is always better, so click on the “Deluxe” button- The GOP is barely leading in toss up CDs 1 and 8, while DFLers lead in toss up CD3 and CD2 leans DFL. 538 has flagged 18 congressional races as “toss ups”, and 3 are in Minnesota- More than any other state, far as I can tell. Add our two senate races and Minnesota will play a bigger role than any other state in taking back the federal legislative branch… But we can’t accomplish that if we pick up two suburban CDs while losing two or even three rural CDs! Same with the legislative races- Winning the 11 GOP held state house races in suburban districts Hillary carried will only tie us with the GOP for control of the state house, and the GOP has designs on the 7 DFL held districts Trump won… Clearly we need to win rural races as well as suburban ones!
How do we win? Each of these 4 or 5 competitive CDs is predicted to be won or lost by a margin of 3% or less, we need a bit over 100,000 votes to win a CD in a non presidential election, so we only need to find a few thousand more DFL voters and get them to the polls. CD7 has 17,000 newly eligible young voters who need affordable higher education, 15,000 native american voters whose tribal sovereignty is threatened, 12,000 immigrant voters targeted by Trump and the GOP’s “ethnic cleansing”, and 44,000 veterans who have earned benefits Trump and the GOP are trying to steal. That’s our margin of victory that will help win countless legislative races too, now let’s get out and get them to the polls!
Respectfully submitted, Dyna Sluyter
Sassy Democrat 