And it’s time to come up for air, lest I spend all day down there! Here’s a link to the data, just click on results. The data set is huge and must run to over a thousand cells and they’ve even calculated probabilities, but the sample sizes get so small that the data ain’t real reliable- When you start with a sample of 400, filter that down to 200 or so democrats, and then split that down to 20 to 30 democrats per congressional district the MOEs get huge. But here’s a few unmistakable trends I observed:
-Gender spreads are huge, on the order of 20%, both between parties and dem candidates. Surprisingly Swanson is taking advantage of this as well as Murphy.
-Walz does best at winning over reps and indies, with around 20% of his vote coming from Trump supporters!
-Walz and Murphy tied with under 30s, Swanson leads among 30-65 voters, Walz leads with 65+ voters.
Generic congressional ballot- Dems lead in CDs 2,3,4,&5. Close in 1&7 and tied in 8. Dems have bigger lead in CD3 than in CD4!
I could binge read through these vast internals until the polls close, but I’d best get a few other things accomplished before the sun sets…
Sassy Democrat 